TxDOT Pipeline Changes - February 2026

• The pipeline remains stable in structure, with 5,541 projects in the March 2026–January 2029 letting window and no meaningful shift in project mix.
• Movement is concentrated in timing and cost, with projects continuing to shift in both directions and total value decreasing by $723M (-2.1%).
• Cost changes are top-heavy, with a small number of large projects driving the majority of dollar movement while most projects see routine estimate updates

#Overview

This analysis covers 5,541 TxDOT projects scheduled to let between March 6, 2026 and January 1, 2029, comparing how that pipeline changed from February 2 to March 3.

Across that window, the pipeline remains structurally consistent, with movement concentrated in timing and cost rather than scope. Total pipeline value decreased by $723.45M (-2.1%), moving from $33.91B to $33.19B, while the overall mix of projects by size remains effectively unchanged. The work program is still heavily weighted toward smaller jobs, and the types of work being let are consistent with prior snapshots.

The takeaway is straightforward. This is not a shift in what TxDOT plans to build. It is an adjustment in when projects are expected to let and how they are being priced.

#Letting Date Shifts (Slippage)

How to read this chart:

Letting dates continue to move in both directions, with a slight bias toward projects being pushed further out. A total of 138 projects shifted by at least six months, with 73 moving later and 65 moving earlier. At the 12-month threshold, 60 projects shifted, with 41 moving later.

At the pipeline level, these shifts show up as a gradual redistribution across time. The share of projects expected in the next 12 months increased slightly from 40.5% to 40.7%, while the share of projects two or more years out increased from 26.4% to 26.8%.

For estimators, the signal is not delay in isolation. The near-term pipeline remains largely intact, but more work is being pushed into later years. That makes the outer pipeline more crowded and less certain, while the next 12 months remain relatively stable. The result is a steady flow of opportunities in the near term, with increasing competition and variability further out.

#Project Type & Subtype Changes

The mix of work in the pipeline remains consistent. Construction continues to dominate, increasing to 95.7% of the pipeline, with roadway work making up the majority of projects and bridge work representing a smaller but steady share.

The measurable changes at the subtype level are small:

Only 5.3% of projects experienced a subtype change across the window.

For contractors, this reinforces a familiar structure. The pipeline is still overwhelmingly roadway-driven, with bridge work as the primary secondary category. There is no indication of a shift toward new types of work or a change in how TxDOT is allocating scope across categories.