TxDOT Q3 2026 Projected Spending

• Projected spending is dominated by TEX-Size projects, which lead with approximately $10.36 billion, followed by Small and Medium tiers at $8.87 billion and $5.62 billion respectively, showcasing a reliance on larger, transformative initiatives over smaller projects.

• Districts like Houston and Austin consistently appear as leading contributors, with Houston projecting around $629 million in FY 2029 Q2, while Austin is set to surge thanks to TEX-Size work, contrasting with declining projections in Dallas and Yoakum.

• The spending landscape reveals a mixture of steady and volatile patterns; while some districts maintain consistent spending, others experience sporadic spikes, creating a diverse engagement climate across the board.

Looking at the recent projections, there's a distinct upward trend compared to historical averages, which reflects a robust market for infrastructure investment. For instance, the FY 2029 Q2 estimate of approximately $2.84 billion stands in premium contrast to previous averages, particularly noting Houston's notable forecast growth, where spending estimates surged by about $306.6 million compared to its historical average.

The tier distribution suggests a strong leaning towards TEX-Size projects, which dominate the total landscape with projected spending of around $10.36 billion. Small, Medium, and Large projects contribute significantly as well, with Small projects at $8.87 billion, yet it’s TEX-Size work that really propels future expenditures.

• Houston showcases a steady leadership in projected spending, consistently hovering near $629 million in FY 2029 Q2, reflecting a strong engagement in both Small and Medium projects.

• Austin exhibits significant growth potential with a peak forecast of $1.63 billion in FY 2029 Q2, highlighting its reliance on Large and TEX-Size projects as key drivers while it historically averaged around $156.7 million.

• Conversely, districts like Dallas and Yoakum face declines, with Dallas showing a drop of $159.1 million from historical trends, indicating an unsettling reliance on potentially less stable funding streams.

• The overall distribution of spending remains mixed, with some districts cycling through high spikes while others engage in a more consistent cadence, leading to varying degrees of volatility across the board.

Abilene's projected spending exhibits fluctuations, with a peak rolling total of $60.2 million in FY 2026 Q4 that sharply dips to $35.7 million by FY 2029 Q3. Over the forecast period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, the cumulative tier spend reveals a focus on Small projects, comprising the majority with $285.0 million across 178 jobs. In actual totals, Abilene notably peaked at $143.0 million in FY 2026 Q4, but faced a steep decline to just $9.7 million in FY 2027 Q1. This represents both volatility and a strong reliance on a limited number of larger projects that do not consistently feed into overall job creation.

Amarillo's forecasted spending demonstrates mixed results with a peak forecast rolling total of $91.5 million in FY 2027 Q1, but sinking to $51.5 million by the conclusion of FY 2029 Q3. In the broader timeframe from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, Amarillo's cumulative projections show $259.2 million in Small projects, indicating a steady approach to smaller tier jobs over time. In terms of actual figures, Amarillo reached its zenith at $216.7 million in FY 2027 Q3 but dramatically dropped to only $4.1 million in FY 2028 Q4. This trajectory highlights both variability and a reliance on sustaining diverse tiers to maintain a more stable growth rate.

Atlanta showcases a more optimistic forecast with its peak rolling total reaching $62.4 million in FY 2029 Q2, though it struggles with a forecast dip to $25.7 million in FY 2027 Q4. Over the anticipated period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, the cumulative projection reveals a balanced approach with $302.1 million in Small tier spending alongside $237.3 million in TEX-Size projects, showcasing a diversified market engagement. Actual numbers reflect this growth, with the district peaking at $377.8 million in FY 2029 Q1, yet staggering to just $3.4 million by FY 2028 Q4. This pattern indicates potential volatility as well as investment opportunities that could further monetize Atlanta’s existing infrastructural framework.

Austin stands out with very high projected growth, with a peak forecast rolling total of $333.5 million in FY 2029 Q2 and an impressive forecast of $1.63 billion in total spending, largely driven by TEX-Size projects dominating at $2.56 billion across the projected horizon from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. This suggests a solidified trajectory towards large-scale infrastructure investments. In actual expenditure, Austin has also seen fluctuating results, hitting a peak of $1.63 billion in FY 2029 Q2 but falling to just $25.7 million in FY 2029 Q3. Such variations underscore the volatility inherent to its expansive and ambitious spending targets, marking it as a key district to watch.

Beaumont displays a consistent yet volatile spending pattern, peaking at $85.4 million in FY 2026 Q4 and dipping to $31.5 million by FY 2027 Q4. Across the period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, Beaumont's $299.6 million in Small projects reflects a stable focus on smaller expenditures that can support regional developments. In terms of actual fiscal insights, Beaumont reached its peak in FY 2029 Q1 at $140.2 million, only to see a diminished follow-up to $7.8 million in FY 2027 Q4. This highlights both reliance on Small scale projects and the inherent risk with inconsistent funding trajectories.

Brownwood exhibits a pattern of peaks and troughs, with a peak forecast rolling total of $30.0 million in FY 2028 Q3 and a notable dip to $17.1 million by FY 2028 Q1. Analyzing its performance from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, the cumulative view shows solid engagement with $120.7 million in Small tier spending, although it lacks larger project investments. In actual terms, the district’s peak reached $143.2 million in FY 2028 Q3, contrasting sharply with a low of only $1.4 million by FY 2029 Q1. This reflects a reliance on limited-scale projects which can yield significant variance in overall spending.

Bryan's fiscal landscape shows peaks of success, with an impressive forecast total reaching $316.6 million in FY 2027 Q4 and a slight decline observed in subsequent periods. Analyzing the total expectation from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, Bryan’s cumulative tier allocation indicates a balanced spread, with $501.6 million earmarked for TEX-Size projects, supplementing broader economic engagement. In the actual count, the district peaked at $316.6 million in FY 2027 Q4 before experiencing a setback to $11.6 million in FY 2027 Q3. Such fluctuations point to potential volatility within larger projects, yet Bryan maintains a diversified tier engagement across its expenditures.

Childress illustrates a more modest financial forecast with a peak rolling total of $22.7 million in FY 2027 Q1, tapering down to $13.8 million by FY 2029 Q2. When examining the period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, the cumulative tier allocation is quite constrained, with just $154.0 million in Small tier projects accounting for the majority of its contributions to regional infrastructure. In actual terms, Childress attained a high of $39.7 million in FY 2027 Q1, but also faced a significant drop to $2.2 million by FY 2027 Q3. This reflects a challenging environment that leans heavily on limited project varieties while struggling for consistency.

Corpus Christi's rolling average shows fluctuations, peaking at a local high-water mark of $79.2 million in FY 2028 Q3 before dipping to a subdued $52.4 million in FY 2029 Q3. This variability reflects a heavy reliance on Large projects, comprising a significant portion of the overall tier engagement. In terms of actual counts, the district amassed an estimated 192 Small job counts from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, alongside a lighter job distribution in higher tiers. With a summed total of $315.7 million allocated to Small projects in that period, it highlights a spend-heavy concentration on smaller contracts while Large projects played a less prominent role.

Dallas showcases a mixed spend backdrop with rolling averages peaking at $384.7 million in FY 2027 Q1, followed by a descent to $161.2 million in FY 2028 Q4. The tier mix reveals a balanced distribution, particularly with notable contributions from TEX-Size jobs totaling $1.08 billion across the forecast horizon. In terms of actual spending, the district experienced a dramatic peak of $1.33 billion in FY 2029 Q1. With 346 Small jobs reported within the forecast timeframe from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, the ratio underscores a harmonized growth between financial allocations and job creation, marking a successful alignment of spend and count.

El Paso's rolling average reflects a steady cadence, with projections exhibiting a peak of $106.9 million in FY 2028 Q2, demonstrating a robust forward momentum in spending. The primary tier mix indicates a strong dependence on TEX-Size projects, which notably pulled $463 million alongside a meaningful presence from Medium-tier contributions. When examining the actual figures, the district's spending soared to $570.7 million in FY 2028 Q2. Collectively, there were 157 Small jobs, which alongside 11 Medium positions across the forecast period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, illustrates a diversified project engagement, keeping pace with the elevated spend overall.

Fort Worth shows a fairly stable engagement in its rolling averages, cresting at $125.9 million in FY 2027 Q2 and maintaining a more moderate throughput with forecasting hovering in the lower region thereafter. A nuanced tier mix displays a strong alignment between Small and Medium projects, amounting to approximately $431 million and $411 million, respectively. Actual counts within the period reflect the translation of this engagement into tangible numbers, with 246 Small jobs and 17 Medium jobs contributing significantly. This suggests a confident approach in execution, with Small projects likely taking precedence in the district's overarching strategy from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3.

Houston's rolling averages exhibit an impressive trajectory with highs reaching $629 million in FY 2029 Q2, showcasing sustained growth amid substantial capital projects. The tier mix strongly leans toward TEX-Size engagements, amounting to a hefty $3.94 billion, indicating a dominant concentration in larger bids. In the realm of actual figures, the district achieved a significant peak of $2.13 billion in FY 2026 Q4. Across the forecast window from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3, Houston saw 391 Small jobs generated, aligning well with their expansive spending strategy while establishing itself as a frontrunner in project volume.

Laredo displays a steady growth pattern with rolling averages peaking at $76.6 million in FY 2029 Q1, while fluctuations bring it down to a low of $51.7 million in FY 2027 Q3. The tier contributions are well distributed, with the varied presence of Small and Medium projects highlighting a balanced engagement strategy. Looking at actual job counts, Laredo reported a total of 90 Small jobs from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. The financial allocations further bolstered this, with spending reaching up to $296.9 million at its peak. This combination of moderate job creation and tier diversity underscores a solid foundation amid varied financial projections.

Lubbock's rolling averages exhibit a moderate ebb and flow, cresting at $65 million in FY 2027 Q1 amid a backdrop of smaller project tiers. This highlights a steady, though not aggressive, market approach with a well-rounded tier mix—particularly favoring Large projects, with a contribution of $277.2 million overall. Actual counts illustrate this further, with 183 Small jobs brought into the fold from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. As spending reached a peak of $334.3 million during FY 2027 Q1, the expenditure versus job count relationship suggests a concentrated focus on engaging Small and Medium jobs to reinforce the district's project landscape.

Lufkin's rolling averages offer a gentle rise, peaking at $35.3 million in FY 2027 Q1, yet revealing mild volatility with lower points noted in subsequent quarters. The tier mix primarily leans on Small projects, contributing $215.5 million and showcasing a strategic focus on less intensive, community-driven projects. In terms of actual job counts, Lufkin amassed a respectable total of 144 Small jobs across the forecast range from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. At its highest, the district recorded $82 million in FY 2026 Q4, indicating a solid correspondence between job counts and financial allocations throughout the period.

Odessa's rolling averages indicate a modest but steady increase, reaching a smoothed high of approximately $98.2 million. The data reveals a concentrated reliance on TEX-Size projects, suggesting a strategic focus on larger-scale developments. In terms of actual counts, Odessa recorded a peak spending of $341.9 million in FY 2029 Q2, peaking at 144 Small jobs across the forecast window from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. This suggests a healthy alignment between spend and count, particularly in smaller tier projects, although larger jobs remain minimal in comparison.

Paris exhibits fluctuating engagement reflected in its rolling averages, which peaked at about $94.6 million in FY 2029 Q1. A notable aspect is the dominance of Large projects, indicating a distinctive emphasis on significant undertakings within this district. The actual financial performance further demonstrates volatility, with a peak expenditure of $361.6 million in FY 2028 Q3 amidst a total of 185 Small jobs reported throughout the 12-quarter forecast from FY 2026 Q4 to FY 2029 Q3. This disparity suggests that while larger projects define the overall spend, smaller projects contribute significantly to the employment count.

Pharr's rolling averages reveal an upward trend, peaking at around $144.3 million during FY 2027 Q1, showcasing an elevated cadence particularly influenced by a mix of Medium and TEX-Size projects. This suggests a dynamic market engagement that is gradually intensifying. On the actual count side, Pharr reached a peak of $331.6 million in FY 2029 Q1, propelled by a mix of 286 Small jobs within the forecast time frame from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. Here, we see a strong emphasis on smaller jobs, reflecting a productive throughput that keeps smaller scales active amidst larger contract concentrations.

San Angelo maintains a relatively steady pattern in its rolling averages, peaking at around $41.4 million in FY 2029 Q3, reflecting a consistent approach to project planning with Small and Medium tiers leading the way. This indicates a thoughtful strategy to stabilize funding across various tier types. In terms of actual counts, San Angelo achieved a peak expenditure of $117.3 million in FY 2028 Q2, with a focus on 164 Small jobs measured throughout the 12 quarters from FY 2026 Q4 to FY 2029 Q3. This highlights a strong correlation between spending and job counts, particularly within the smaller project scope.

San Antonio's rolling averages exhibit a robust engagement, reaching a high of approximately $226.7 million in FY 2029 Q1, driven predominantly by a mix of Large and TEX-Size projects. This dynamic indicates a solid construction pipeline that favors larger-scale investments. Actual quarterly figures reveal even more impressive outcomes, notably a peak spending of $620.3 million in FY 2029 Q1, with 252 Small jobs across the forecast period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. The figures suggest that while larger projects dominate spending, numerous small-scale projects sustain local employment, balancing out the overall spending strategy.

Tyler’s rolling averages suggest a gentle rise, with peaks reaching about $97.5 million in FY 2026 Q4. The data indicates a diverse mix, primarily involving Small and Medium projects, showcasing a balanced approach to tier engagement. Looking at actual spending, Tyler peaked at $231.6 million in FY 2026 Q4, with 201 Small jobs reported across the forecast window from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. This relationship suggests a concentration on smaller projects that effectively support the local job market within a competitive district.

Waco shows dynamic patterns in its rolling averages with peaks approaching $110.9 million in FY 2029 Q2, indicating a concentrated spending strategy driven largely by TEX-Size projects. This trajectory underscores an underlying commitment to major infrastructure enhancements. When examining actual quarterly figures, Waco achieved a significant peak of $810.3 million in FY 2029 Q1, while recording 248 Small jobs throughout the 12-quarter forecast window from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. This reflects a successful result of investing in large projects while still supporting substantial employment through smaller contracts.

Wichita Falls exhibits a rolling average consistent with balanced engagement, peaking at approximately $81.4 million in FY 2027 Q2. The predominant focus appears to be TEX-Size projects, suggesting an effort to align spending with larger developmental goals in the district. In actual terms, Wichita Falls recorded a peak of $337.8 million in FY 2027 Q2, with a total of 171 Small jobs noted over the 12-quarter span from FY 2026 Q4 to FY 2029 Q3. This indicates a promising relationship between job counts and spending, showcasing a blend of larger contracts while maintaining smaller project activity.

Yoakum reflects an episodic pattern in its rolling averages, with peaks at around $144.4 million in FY 2027 Q1, buoyed by a strong emphasis on TEX-Size and Large projects. This suggests a noteworthy reliance on significant contracts that elevate the district’s overall spending profile. In terms of actual expenditure, Yoakum experienced a peak of $298.3 million in FY 2027 Q1, alongside 262 Small jobs recorded during the forecast period from FY 2026 Q4 through FY 2029 Q3. This illustrates a contrast where while large projects drive significant spending, smaller jobs play a crucial role in sustaining district employment.